Markets for Nabucco

In 2005 total European gas consumption (EU 25+Balkan states+CH) mounted to 502 bcm/y, of which 290 bcm were imported from different sources. This means that 42% of the consumption with in the EU is covered by
indigenous production. The imports coming from Russia, Norway, Algeria and to a very small part from other sources amount to 58 % in total.

In the future, this picture will change substantially. The share of natural gas as primary energy source will increase from 23% to 34% on the long run. The consumption will increase, and we will face a decline of the production with in Europe. That all will lead to considerably increased imports to Europe (based on EU forecasts up to 80% in 2030).

Market studies indicate that in 2020 volumes between 25 and 30 bcm/y of natural gas pipeline transports from the Caspian region and Middle East are reasonable in order to cover theexpected increase of European gas demands. According to the geographical parameters the Nabucco gaspipeline is very competitive for the targeted markets in Central and Western Europe as well as in the Balkan countries.

According to the various forecasts for the future European gas supply it can be seen that the existing supplies from Russia, Algeria and from Norway will not only keep their important supply role but will even almost double their present supplies up to 2030. However, as indigenous production all over Europe is decreasing very dramatically new infrastructure sources have to be established with the European gas markets to meet the expected future gas demand.

In this respect the Caspian Region, the Middle East as well as Egypt with their biggest gas reserves worldwide will play a crucial role in terms of diversification of supply as well as security of supply for Europe. The opening up of a fourth main supply corridor is the only solution to meet all future gas demands in Europe.

Consequently this route offers a wide range of supply sources for Nabucco gas pipeline, getting gas from Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Egypt, Russia and from Iran at a later point in time. Furthermore it remains to be seen if also gas from Iraq will be linked with the Nabucco pipeline system.